Purchase Patterns affected by Budget Spending Rules

Useful Government Spending and Macroeconomic (In)stability under Balanced-Budget Rules∗

It has been shown that an otherwise standard one-sector real business cycle model may exhibit indeterminacy and sunspots under a balanced-budget rule that consists of fixed and wasteful government spending and proportional income taxation. However, the economy always displays saddle-path stability and equilibrium uniqueness if the government finances endogenous public expenditures with a consta...

Optimal Budget Deficit Rules

This paper discusses the problem of the optimal determination of budget deficit limits in cases where the fiscal authority wishes to keep the budget deficit close to a reference value. It is assumed that the fiscal authority minimizes the expected discounted value of squared deviations from the reference value. Lump-sum and proportional intervention costs are considered. This paper is also an e...

Forecasting Consumer Spending from Purchase Intentions Expressed on Social Media

Consumer spending is a vital macroeconomic indicator. In this paper we present a novel method for predicting future consumer spending from social media data. In contrast to previous work that largely relied on sentiment analysis, the proposed method models consumer spending from purchase intentions found on social media. Our experiments with time series analysis models and machine-learning regr...

Federal budget increases spending on applied research and development.

Tourist Spending Patterns in Utah